2026 ELECTION: Bobi Wine, Mugisha Muntu Ahead of Museveni in Latest Opinion Poll

A recently conducted opinion poll indicates that main opposition National Unity Platform (NUP) leader Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine would win the presidency in a free and fair election.

The opinion poll, whose results The Pearl Times has seen, shows that Bobi Wine and former army commander Maj Gen (Rtd) Gregg Mugisha Muntu of the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) were ahead of President Yoweri Museveni and his jailed opponent Dr Kizza Besigye.

Museveni has been in power since 1986 when he took power after a five-year bush war that left hundreds of thousands of people dead, especially in the Luweero Triangle area.

There are indicators that Museveni will seek to extend his four-decade grip on power for another five years.

He is currently aged 80.

Both Muntu and Bobi Wine made their debut in the presidential race in 2021. Bobi Wine quickly became Museveni’s closest challenger after Dr Besigye declined to stand for the fifth time in a row.

Up to 27,086 people on microblogging site X took part in the poll conducted by university professor Jimmy Spire Ssentongo.

Voters had to pick one of the four candidates – Museveni, Muntu, Bobi Wine and Besigye – as they answered the question: If there was a free and fair election in Uganda, of the following, whom would you vote for President?

By the end of the poll, which lasted 24 hours, Bobi Wine had 51.3 per cent of the voters saying they would vote him for president in a free and fair election.

Muntu was in second position with 18.5 per cent, followed by Besigye with 17 per cent and Museveni – the incumbent – with 13.2 per cent, according to poll results.

After the poll, Prof Ssentongo gave his thoughts on the results – mainly questions on voting behavior. He called for another poll by a different organization or opinion leader.

“We could argue that this is the opinion of people on X , certainly that’s the case. But,  it would still beg the question: Why do the people on X vote like this? We do not have figures on the national distribution of the X population. I notice though that I get help-seeking messages from all parts of the country, and I see people here tweeting from various parts of Uganda. Is X in (peri)urban areas only? Perhaps, but still, why do urban Ugandans around the country vote like this? And, is urban Uganda significantly different from the rural in terms of perception? I leave that to you,” he wrote.

“Well, is it because the poll is run by ‘Spire’? Well, although I saw it shared in spaces of all the ‘candidates’, I would be happy to see another poll run by other Ugandans of different inclinations. Ultimately, we can’t totally dismiss what such polls say.”

You can watch video Here.

It should be remembered that both Bobi Wine and Besigye have previously accused Museveni of rigging their votes. While Bobi Wine claimed to have won the 2021 election with over 50%, even Museveni accused Bobi Wine of stealing his votes in Buganda. (See Details Here, There and Over There).

Museveni’s son, who is also the military chief, has said he is confident that Museveni will defeat Bobi Wine in 2026. (See Details Here and There).

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