The speed at which the campaigns for the speaker’s seat had started between incumbent Rebecca Kadaga and her deputy Jacob Oulanyah had thrown party members into panic.
With the intervention of the party Chairman Gen Yoweri Kaguta Tibuhaburwa Museveni Museveni about a fortnight ago, the impatient cadres were called to order and campaigns temporarily suspended.
It’s reported that the president was overly concerned that the activities of the two NRM leaders were casting bad light on the party and threatening to tear it apart.
As such, calling for the cessation of hostilities was both timely and prudent.
Even with Museveni’s intervention, surprisingly, the fault lines within the party have remained visble, with Team Oulanyah on one side and Team Kadaga seeking to outsmart each other both in the House and among members of the general public.
Analysts have argued that halting the campaigns was truly a great solution but only in the short term.
With the Central Executive Committee (CEC) of the ruling party expected to convene soon to decide on who to front between the two, the worst is yet to come.
Various power brokers within the party have variously presented Oulanyah as the favorite to emerge winner from CEC, while Kadaga maintains she has huge support among MPs across the political divide.
Regardless of who of the two gets endorsed in CEC, the speaker election will most certainly leave behind a deeply decided House for Museveni who has since 1989 fought to ensure unity in the legislature.
If Kadaga is dropped as most people project, it will only be a question of how many members of Parliament she would go with especially amid speculations she might end up running as an independent.
This would leave NRM at risk of being devoured by an increasingly threatening opposition especially as speculations of a possible Museveni retirement gather momentum.
Seeing Kadaga in Opposition has also been looked at as a probable scenario, reigniting the debate on whether the party would once again be in position to effectively pull itself together and unite as was the case after former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi had deserted over five years ago.
Under all circumstances, NRM’s life after the speaker’s election could hinge on Museveni’s wisdom while handling the matter.
Even as tens of members will convene in CEC to decide on the matter, Museveni’s vote usually overrides all the rest.
Either he chooses to convince one of the two out in favor of an equally or more juicy appointment, or he opts for another person as a way of saving the party from an impending wreckage.
