Ruto Vs Kalonzo, Sifuna, Gachagua… Popularity by Region and Age Group — According to Latest Poll

President William Ruto has emerged as the early front-runner in Kenya’s 2027 presidential race, according to a new nationwide opinion poll that not only places him comfortably ahead of his closest rivals but also provides fresh insight into how support for leading political figures is distributed across the country’s regions and age groups.

The latest Infotrak Voice of the People Poll, released on Monday, suggests that while the race for State House remains in its formative stages, Ruto enjoys a significant advantage over a divided opposition, with no single challenger yet commanding nationwide momentum comparable to the incumbent president.

According to the survey, Ruto is the preferred presidential candidate for 32 percent of Kenyans, giving him a commanding lead over Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who comes in second with 13 percent support.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Jubilee deputy party leader Fred Matiang’i are tied for third place, each attracting 12 percent of respondents, while former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua trails with 4 percent.

The findings indicate that although several opposition figures continue to enjoy considerable regional influence, none has yet consolidated enough national support to challenge Ruto’s early lead.

The poll also found that 18 percent of respondents remain undecided, underscoring the fluid nature of Kenya’s political landscape more than a year before campaigns are expected to reach full momentum.

Ruto Dominates Across Multiple Regions

One of the most striking aspects of the survey is the extent of Ruto’s regional reach.

The President posts his strongest performance in North Eastern Kenya, where 59 percent of respondents identify him as their preferred presidential candidate.

His popularity is also particularly strong in the Rift Valley, his traditional political base, where he records 46 percent support.

Perhaps more notable is his showing in Nyanza, a region historically regarded as an opposition stronghold, where he garners 40 percent support according to the poll.

The numbers suggest that Ruto has succeeded in broadening his appeal beyond areas that have traditionally backed him, reflecting the impact of his sustained political outreach since taking office.

However, the survey also highlights one region where the President continues to face considerable resistance.

In Central Kenya, Ruto records his weakest performance, attracting only 12 percent support.

The region has witnessed shifting political alliances following the fallout between Ruto and his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, and the poll suggests that the political contest there remains far from settled.

Kalonzo Holds Eastern Stronghold

For Kalonzo Musyoka, the survey confirms that Eastern Kenya remains the backbone of his political support.

According to Infotrak, the veteran opposition leader commands 40 percent support in the region, making it his strongest electoral base.

Despite maintaining a firm grip on Eastern, Kalonzo’s national support remains well below Ruto’s, illustrating the challenge of converting regional popularity into nationwide electoral strength.

Political analysts have long argued that any successful presidential campaign in Kenya requires support that cuts across ethnic and regional lines, making national appeal a critical factor ahead of the 2027 contest.

Sifuna Makes Strong Showing Among Younger Voters

The poll also suggests that Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna is steadily emerging as one of the country’s most popular younger political figures.

Although he is tied nationally with Fred Matiang’i at 12 percent, Sifuna enjoys particularly strong support in Western Kenya, where he records 26 percent.

Even in that region, however, Ruto remains ahead with 35 percent, highlighting the President’s continued dominance across much of the country.

The findings further show that Sifuna resonates more strongly with Kenya’s youth than any other leading presidential aspirant included in the survey.

Among respondents aged 18 to 26 years, Sifuna attracts 20 percent support—the highest figure he records across all age categories.

The numbers suggest that the outspoken Nairobi Senator has built significant appeal among first-time and younger voters, a demographic expected to play an increasingly influential role in determining the outcome of future elections.

Matiang’i Finds Support in Central Kenya

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i also records encouraging numbers in parts of the country.

His strongest showing comes in Central Kenya, where 19 percent of respondents identify him as their preferred presidential candidate.

Nationally, Matiang’i records 12 percent, placing him level with Sifuna.

The survey further shows that his largest support base by age comprises voters between 36 and 45 years, among whom he enjoys 14 percent support.

Gachagua Struggles to Build National Momentum

For former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, the findings paint a more difficult political picture.

Despite remaining a prominent figure in national politics following his dramatic fallout with President Ruto, Gachagua registers only 4 percent nationwide support among respondents surveyed.

His strongest performance comes in Central Kenya, where he records 12 percent, matching Ruto’s rating in the region.

The figures suggest that while Gachagua retains some influence in his traditional political backyard, that support has yet to translate into significant national popularity.

Central Kenya Emerges as Key Battleground

Beyond candidate rankings, the survey identifies Central Kenya as the region with the largest share of undecided voters.

According to Infotrak, 26 percent of respondents in the region remain undecided regarding their preferred presidential candidate.

The uncertainty extends to urban centres as well.

Both Mombasa and Nairobi recorded 24 percent undecided voters, indicating that substantial numbers of Kenyans have yet to align themselves with any prospective presidential contender.

Those figures suggest that campaigns targeting undecided voters in these politically significant regions could play a decisive role as the election approaches.

Age Reveals Different Political Preferences

The poll also highlights notable generational differences in political preferences.

Ruto’s strongest backing comes from voters aged 46 to 55 years, reinforcing his appeal among middle-aged Kenyans.

Kalonzo Musyoka performs best among respondents aged 55 years and above, suggesting that older voters remain his strongest constituency.

Sifuna, by contrast, dominates among younger respondents, while Matiang’i performs best among voters aged 36 to 45 years, reflecting differing generational priorities and political identities across the electorate.

Early Snapshot of the 2027 Race

Although Kenya’s next General Election is still some distance away, the Infotrak survey offers one of the clearest snapshots yet of how the presidential contest is beginning to take shape.

The findings portray President Ruto as the politician with the broadest national appeal at this stage of the race, while his potential challengers continue to rely largely on regional strongholds and specific demographic groups.

At the same time, the sizeable proportion of undecided voters suggests that the political landscape remains fluid, leaving ample room for shifts in public opinion as alliances evolve, campaigns intensify and candidates formally declare their bids for the country’s highest office.

If the current trends persist, however, the latest poll indicates that President Ruto enters the early stages of the 2027 presidential contest from a position of considerable strength, with both geographical reach and demographic diversity giving him a clear advantage over a still-fragmented opposition.

You can read our earlier report on the Infotrak poll Here.